“The Trump effect” is already hitting international student enrolments in US universities, according to a new report from the British Council, with a fall in the number of overseas students recorded in 2025 that’s predicted to gather pace in 2026.

Since President Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he has “pursued a more overtly anti-immigrant policy agenda than in his first term [2017-21]”, says the report, written by the director of the body’s East Asia education insights hub, Jazreel Goh.

Specifically, the report says that international student enrolments in the US dropped by over 17,000 in December 2025, when compared with December 2024.

It predicts - based on data from Trump’s first term - that “the downturn will likely become more apparent in 2026”, with China and India currently recording the “most pronounced” drop in international students enrolling in American universities.

A changing international market

It’s a shift international school leaders tell Tes they are witnessing, too, with Adam McRoy, headmaster of Cogdel Cranleigh School Changsha in China, saying he has seen a “massive drop-off in students going to the US”.

In part, he puts this down to worsening relations between the two countries and a desire among many families for children to study closer to home, with universities in Hong Kong and Singapore being “a lot more popular” now as a result.

A leader in India, meanwhile, says they are also seeing this trend, with universities in Australia, Japan and Hong Kong all of increasing interest - although the US is by no means an afterthought.

Nigeria shows a small decline in current applications, and that may accelerate in the future. One international school leader in the country says that “concerns about race, the rise of the far right, and LGBT [rights]” are present, with many students now looking at Canada as an alternative.

Some countries are bucking the trend for now, though: the report cites Vietnam, Brazil and parts of South Asia as areas still sending large numbers of students to the US.

Titus Edge, headmaster of St Paul’s School, The British School of São Paulo in Brazil, says he is seeing this, with the US remaining “a familiar and aspirational destination” for many, despite recent events.

“There were a few questions and some uncertainty early on, but that hasn’t yet translated into students turning away from US universities.”

However, he notes that there has been a “diversification” of interest in terms of where students are applying, with the Netherlands and Spain increasingly of interest - although he says this was already the case before Trump came to office.

Students’ growing interest in Australia

Meanwhile, for Vietnam, Goh says that the rise in applications may simply be because long-term plans to move to the US were seen through in spite of Trump’s announcements.

She says there might have been “a rush to secure US study visas and places in US higher education institutions [HEIs] before more onerous immigration barriers were put in place”, and that “in a lot of cases, the decision to study in the US was taken before the 2024 election, making it difficult to change plans at a late stage”.

“We will have to wait and see if this trend continues into the next year’s data,” she adds.

However, for those on the frontline in the country, it appears a decline is on the cards.

Toby Bate, head of secondary at the British Vietnamese International School (BVIS) Ho Chi Minh City, says enrolments to US universities peaked for BVIS students in 2024-25, and that there has been “a significant decline in BVIS students planning on studying in the US” this academic year, with the data indicating a 50 per cent drop.

“This shift has led to a marked rise in applicants favouring universities across Asia, along with continued growth in students selecting Australian universities as their top choice,” he adds.

Australia’s rising popularity is also noted by John Gwyn Jones, the chief executive of the Federation of British International Schools in Asia (FOBISIA).

“Proximity to family, visa stability, and the strong reputation of Australian universities are all factors influencing this shift,” he says.

The reference to visa stability is particularly important, he says, as this is one big issue with the US that is now causing people to reconsider their options.

“There has been growing concern among international families about the predictability of visa processes and the broader message that the US immigration policies can send to prospective students,” he says.

“For some families, this uncertainty alone is enough to redirect applications elsewhere.”

The rise of South East Asian universities

Jones says that this is something the UK needs to be mindful of if it “wishes to maintain its position as a leading destination for international students”.

“From the perspective of our schools, the demand for UK higher education remains strong, but students and families are increasingly pragmatic,” he adds.

“They will pursue opportunities in countries where they feel both welcomed and confident that visa pathways will support their academic ambitions.”

The British Council report acknowledges that the UK government does seem to be trying to ensure the sector is able to welcome applicants, noting that since a downturn in 2023, the “issuance of UK student visas is on the rise”.

Whether this is enough remains to be seen, as it is clear from leaders that new destinations are emerging in student choices - and that South East Asia is driving a lot of this.

“Twenty per cent of the world’s top 50 universities are now located in East Asia, and the number of top-300 HEIs in the region has doubled over the last five years alone,” the report states.

Dr Tristan Bunnell, an academic based at the University of Bath who has researched transnational matriculation pathways of international school students, says it is clear that this has been driven by nations such as China and Vietnam wanting to stop the “brain drain of young people” moving overseas to study, whether that’s to America or Britain.

In response, the report suggests that UK universities may well set up more campuses in the region to pick up those students now less willing to travel. “South Asia will be the most important growth market for UK education in 2026,” it adds.

This could also become the case in other countries, with the leader in Nigeria saying they are aware of interest by UK universities to open in the country as the “trend is definitely for African families to stay closer to the source”.

So, much as many British curricula international schools are expanding to meet demand, so too might UK universities by offering more local study options - something the British Council says could be “the best of both worlds” for students: “a UK degree offered by a transnational education programme closer to home”.