In December 2025, the Department for Education’s permanent secretary, Susan Acland-Hood, declared to the Commons Education Select Committee that the government’s 6,500 teacher target “is deliverable, but we really want to make sure that we do not hit the target and miss the point”.

The progress so far - 2,300 more teachers in secondary, special and alternative provision (AP) - and positive trends in recruitment and retention reported in the National Foundation for Educational Research’s annual report on the teacher labour market in England bear out the permanent secretary’s tentative optimism.

In designing its target, the DfE has avoided potential pitfalls of setting it in such a way that it is harder to achieve than it needs to be.

First, framing the target on overall numbers means improvements to retention are crucial to its achievement, in addition to encouraging new teachers into the sector.

Second, although voices as diverse as the NEU teaching union and the Conservative Party have complained that the omission of primary teachers from the target undervalues them, the fact that primary pupil numbers are set to fall and primary teacher supply has historically been healthy means the omission is logical.

Recruiting teachers where they are most needed

Clearly, primary supply needs to remain strong, but with recruitment of 28 per cent above target last year and a forecast of 30 per cent above target this year, that seems secure.

Yet the risk of not meeting the target also remains real. While current recruitment and retention trends suggest greater availability of teachers than two or three years ago, school budgets are also a critical determining factor for the numbers employed.

Tight school and college budgets might constrain leaders from employing more teachers, even if the supply is available.

But perhaps the key issue is to focus overly on hitting the target but “miss” the point - in short, by failing to attract teachers in the areas where they are most needed.

There are four key ways this can be avoided:

1. Specialist teachers in the right subjects

Last year saw 1,400 more teachers employed in secondary schools than the year before. However, the percentage of subject specialists fell over the same period from 87.4 to 86.9 per cent. The net effect is that the overall number of subject specialists in secondary schools was essentially flat.

Increased initial teacher training recruitment last year and this year is likely to bolster the number of available specialists coming through. But it will be important to keep monitoring this to ensure more teachers equates to more teaching by specialist teachers.

2. Key sectors get the extra staff they need

The 6,500 target covers further education (FE), special and AP, as well as secondary. This reflects the supply challenges in FE, special schools and AP that don’t get the attention they deserve. Additional staff in these sectors would therefore help to address these supply challenges.

But the focus on these areas also reflects expected increases in pupil numbers, which could require 5,000 more teachers just to keep up. In contrast, the number of secondary students aged 11-16 is set to fall over the next few years.

We should therefore expect the biggest increases in FE, special and AP. If we don’t, then shortages will persist.

3. Disadvantaged schools benefit the most

Addressing acute teacher shortages in schools serving the most disadvantaged communities should be at the heart of the 6,500 teacher target. These schools have higher turnover, more vacancies and fewer subject specialists.

To achieve this, policy solutions don’t necessarily need to be tailored. Measures that address national under-supply are likely to disproportionately support schools in greatest need.

Nevertheless, targeted action would also help. The targeted retention incentive programme currently has higher payments for early career teachers in disadvantaged schools, which the DfE would be wise to continue.

4. Make teaching attractive long term

Teacher supply trends are looking healthier for the next couple of years, supported by a sluggish wider economy and recent pay increases, which could help reach the 6,500 teacher target.

However, that could reverse in the medium term if the wider labour market recovers, which could leave teacher supply vulnerable again. The vulnerability could be compounded by policy choices made now, such as on teacher pay.

The DfE has said a teacher pay award of 2.7 per cent in the next two years is affordable for schools and 6.5 per cent over three years is preferable. However, both would undermine the competitiveness of teacher pay in the long term as average earnings are forecast to grow faster than that.

Overall, this is not a time for the government to rest on its laurels. Teacher recruitment and retention needs to remain a key policy focus to ensure the progress achieved in the past few years is sustained and that pupils across the country have access to high-quality teaching.

Jack Worth is the NFER’s school workforce lead