More students are likely to enter qualifications for creative subjects under proposed changes to the Attainment 8 (A8) secondary school performance measure, analysis finds.

However, it shows that languages will not be boosted to the same extent, and there may be a “slight downturn” in uptake of history and geography, as well as reduced interest in triple science.

In a blog post, FFT Education Datalab asks: “Which subjects will be winners and losers?”

Proposed reforms to A8, designed to encourage a broader curriculum at GCSE, will “change the incentives for schools to offer particular qualifications”, says FFT. It looks at how subject entry patterns will shift as a result.

Boost for creative subjects

FFT’s analysis suggests that “we are likely to see increased entries in creative subjects and languages”, but adds: “Given the harsher grading of languages and a lack of teachers, we would expect a greater increase in creative subjects.”

It also notes that “most pupils already enter a humanities subject”. Religious studies will now be counted within the humanities, which “may result in a slight downturn in entries in geography and history”.

The FFT analysis, which is based on key stage 4 figures for 2023-24 in the National Pupil Database, adds: “The proposed model may act as a disincentive to enter triple science.”

It highlights figures under the existing arrangements in 2023-24, which show around 32,000 students (5 per cent of the cohort) entering triple science, including computer science.

Following publication of the curriculum and assessment review in November, the government announced it would consult on changes to KS4. The likely demise of the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) will mean changes to which qualifications are included across eight slots in the revamped A8.

The EBacc was created to incentivise uptake of traditionally academic subjects at GCSE, including English, maths, science, a modern foreign language and a humanities subject in either history or geography.

Shift to wider-ranging curriculum

The changes to A8 aim to encourage a shift to a wider-ranging curriculum, including two “breadth slots” that will encompass “humanities, languages and creative subjects”.

The FFT blog states: “At present, around 68 per cent of pupils fill all the available slots within the proposed new A8 measure, but 85 per cent fill all the slots of the EBacc-heavy current version.

“Therefore, it is likely that qualification entry patterns will change.”

Also this week, University of Cambridge research found students being steered away from creative subjects such as art, music and drama, with particular concerns about the impact on girls and lower-income pupils.

In December, a survey found that only 7 per cent of school leaders would spend more time on creative subjects after the removal of the EBacc.